Sudan Likely To Demonstrate A Minimal Increase In The Role Of Unlawful Actors Over The Next Five Years
Executive Summary:
Due to extreme regional instability, the governments inability to enforce law and stability in border and rural areas, the influence of China, the government's ideological alignment with militant groups, and the involvement of neighboring
countries the Sudan provides significant roles for a few powerful unlawful non-state actors (NSA). NSA like the Sudan People's Liberation
Movement/Army (SPLM/A) and the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) wield enormous regional influence through extra-government methods of influence, such as ideological alignment with the government and large groups of the populace (Islamic), violence, and intimidation. China, as a member of the UN Security Counsel, helps Sudan escape international scrutiny and maintain the status quo. Additionally China's economic engagement means that business minded NSA are likely unable to compete for economic resources in Sudan.
Discussion:
In stark contrast to the pro-Arab pro-Islamic policies of the Sudanese government, neighboring country Chad is more aligned with the non-Arab African interests. Chadian government is under increasing pressure from its own populace to intercede in the Dafurian conflict. For these reasons, while business minded NSAs will continue to find only extremely restricted roles,insurgent NSAs will continue to find themselves at the center of regional, national, and international, negotiations, and will likely continue to demand concessions as prerequisites for the cessation of violence.This will likely demonstrate a growing role for unlawful NSAs over the next five years; however, influential growth will be minimal, this is due to the fact that NSAs are close to culmination of the degree of influence they can gain using their violent tactics.
The scores of 2 on the extra-government side of the role potential spectrum is skewed and fails to represent the full potential of some NSAs within Sudan for two main reasons. 1) The doing business variable of zero is the result of Chinese influence. Not only has China secured the most valuable resources in Sudan, but it has the security forces necessary to protect it from unlawful NSAs, who would otherwise claim it through violent action. Claiming resources through violent action would be indicative of the behavior of groups such as the Asmara-based National Democratic Alliance (NDA) which during their campaign attempt to claim key infrastructure resources, such as hydroelectric dams etc. This type of activity would be more consistent with a doing business score of 4 or 5 on the extra-government side of the role potential spectrum. China's mitigating presence prevents these resources from falling into the hands of insurgents and helps maintain the Sudanese government. 2) The democracy variable of zero is consistent with totalitarian regimes. Although the government is popularly elected it clearly panders to Arab interests and marginalizes the non-Arab populace. With the support of the Chinese the Sudanese government is somewhat stable, allowed to carry on its agendas in spite of international and internal scrutiny, and is immune to the UN. Furthermore, loss of power by the government would endanger the largest Chinese-owned overseas oil interest. These factors contribute to Sudan's overall rating of 2 on the extra-government side of the role potential spectrum, which would otherwise gravitate more toward the extra-government extreme.
Sudan Likely To Demonstrate A Minimal Increase In The Role Of Unlawful Actors Over The Next Five Years
Executive Summary:
Due to extreme regional instability, the governments inability to enforce law and stability in border and rural areas, the influence of China, the government's ideological alignment with militant groups, and the involvement of neighboring
countries the Sudan provides significant roles for a few powerful unlawful non-state actors (NSA). NSA like the Sudan People's LiberationMovement/Army (SPLM/A) and the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) wield enormous regional influence through extra-government methods of influence, such as ideological alignment with the government and large groups of the populace (Islamic), violence, and intimidation. China, as a member of the UN Security Counsel, helps Sudan escape international scrutiny and maintain the status quo. Additionally China's economic engagement means that business minded NSA are likely unable to compete for economic resources in Sudan.
Discussion:
In stark contrast to the pro-Arab pro-Islamic policies of the Sudanese government, neighboring country Chad is more aligned with the non-Arab African interests. Chadian government is under increasing pressure from its own populace to intercede in the Dafurian conflict. For these reasons, while business minded NSAs will continue to find only extremely restricted roles, insurgent NSAs will continue to find themselves at the center of regional, national, and international, negotiations, and will likely continue to demand concessions as prerequisites for the cessation of violence. This will likely demonstrate a growing role for unlawful NSAs over the next five years; however, influential growth will be minimal, this is due to the fact that NSAs are close to culmination of the degree of influence they can gain using their violent tactics.The scores of 2 on the extra-government side of the role potential spectrum is skewed and fails to represent the full potential of some NSAs within Sudan for two main reasons. 1) The doing business variable of zero is the result of Chinese influence. Not only has China secured the most valuable resources in Sudan, but it has the security forces necessary to protect it from unlawful NSAs, who would otherwise claim it through violent action. Claiming resources through violent action would be indicative of the behavior of groups such as the Asmara-based National Democratic Alliance (NDA) which during their campaign attempt to claim key infrastructure resources, such as hydroelectric dams etc. This type of activity would be more consistent with a doing business score of 4 or 5 on the extra-government side of the role potential spectrum. China's mitigating presence prevents these resources from falling into the hands of insurgents and helps maintain the Sudanese government. 2) The democracy variable of zero is consistent with totalitarian regimes. Although the government is popularly elected it clearly panders to Arab interests and marginalizes the non-Arab populace. With the support of the Chinese the Sudanese government is somewhat stable, allowed to carry on its agendas in spite of international and internal scrutiny, and is immune to the UN. Furthermore, loss of power by the government would endanger the largest Chinese-owned overseas oil interest. These factors contribute to Sudan's overall rating of 2 on the extra-government side of the role potential spectrum, which would otherwise gravitate more toward the extra-government extreme.
Analytic Confidence: 9
Source Reliability: 9